"When You Lack Evidence..."

by Carl Lofmark
When you lack evidence, the only way to decide whether or not to believe something is to ask: Is it likely? If you tell me a bird flew past my window, I will probably believe you, even though I did not see it myself and I have no evidence. That is because such a thing is likely. I have seen it happen before. It is more likely that a bird flew past my window, than that you are deceiving me. But if you tell me a pig flew past my window, I will not believe you, because my past experience tells me that such things do not happen, and so I presume that what you reported is false. Thus, where there is no evidence we have to rely on our own past experience of the sort of things that really happen (What Is the Bible? pp. 41-42).

Prophecy Fulfillment and Probability

From *The Skeptical Review*, 1993 / July-August:

by Farrell Till

Bible apologists love to use probability arguments, and most readers have undoubtedly encountered them in apologetic literature. Some situation perceived to prove either the existence of God (life developing from nonlife) or the inspiration of the Bible (prophecy fulfillment) is analyzed in terms of likeliness or probability. Most of these arguments, of course, are based on purely arbitrary factors selected to make the theistic or biblical position look good. I have yet to see one that can survive careful scrutiny.

At the debate in Portland, Texas, that Earle Beach referred to in the foregoing article, my opponent applied probability to the prophecy-fulfillment argument. He mentioned several times how truly amazing it was that so many Old Testament prophecies had been fulfilled precisely and exactly in the life of Jesus of Nazareth. His premise was that over 300 such prophecies were made and later fulfilled. At one point when he was under cross-examination, he stated that the probability of any 50 of these prophecies being precisely fulfilled was 11 sextillion 250 quintillion to one. The figure written out would look like this: 11,250,000,000,000,000,000,000. Since the statement was made under cross-examination, I could not respond directly to it without calling for a resumption of time, and at the moment I was pursuing a line of questioning that I wanted to continue. In reviewing the tapes, I was reminded that I forgot to return to this issue to show the absurdity of the statement, so I will do that now. If Mr. Dobbs wishes to respond to my comments, we will gladly publish his statement in the next issue. My prediction is that he won't respond. If he doesn't, I wonder what he would say the odds are that I could make a prophecy like this and have it fulfilled.

The Failure of Isaiah's Prophetic Rantings (7 of 7)

From *The Skeptical Review*, 1999 / September-October:

by Farrell Till

Biblical inerrantists never seem to tire of looking for vindication of the Bible in prophecy fulfillments. No skeptic discussing the Bible with a biblicist can question its divine origin for very long without hearing the biblicist say, "Well, what about all of the prophecy fulfillments?"

The best way to answer this question is with a question of your own: "What prophecy fulfillments?" This alone may be enough to stop the biblicist in his tracks, because he may well be a typical Christian who is uninformed in the Bible and is simply repeating something he has heard but doesn't know enough about to discuss intelligently. If, however, the biblicist is someone who does have specific prophecy fulfillment claims in mind, they can usually be rebutted by just analyzing the alleged prophecy in context to point out parts of the prophecy that seem to be missing in the fulfillment event. Such missing parts can almost always be identified. I have discussed in past articles this approach to debating prophecy-fulfillment claims, so I won't rehash it here.

When Did the Wolf Dwell with the Lamb? (6 of 7)

From *The Skeptical Review*, 1999 / July-August. [This is the sixth of seven posts dealing with alleged biblical prophecies. Number seven will immediately follow this one]:

by Farrell Till

In the past several issues I have been analyzing alleged prophecy fulfillments for Bruce Weston, a subscriber whose biblical skepticism has been restrained by lingering feelings that some prophecies may have been fulfilled. In my last article in this series, I will look at the often-trumpeted claim that creation of the state of Israel in 1948 fulfilled biblical prophecies.

This one seems to be a favorite of prophecy-fulfillment buffs who are desperately looking for something substantial on which to pin their hopes that the Bible is the inspired word of God. The history of Israel was checkered with periods of foreign captivities that began as early as the time of the judges (Judges 3:7-11; 4:1-3; 6:1-6) and extended through the most famous captivity of them all when Nebuchadnezzar removed many of the Judean captives to Babylon (2 Kings 25). For an ethnocentric people who thought that they were the "chosen ones" of their god Yahweh, these captivities were hard to comprehend. That they could be explained by the simple fact of military science that the side with the largest army would usually win a war was foreign to their way of thinking, and so the prophets of Israel always attributed Israel's defeats to "evil" that the people had done "in the sight of Yahweh." This optimism that the Israelites were the chosen people of the mightiest of all the gods inspired many of the prophets to predict that although they were taken into captivity, Yahweh would one day bring them back to their homeland.

When the Fig Tree Puts Forth Its Leaves? (5 of 7)

From *The Skeptical Review*, 1999 / May-June. [This is the fifth of seven posts dealing with alleged biblical prophecies. The remaining two will immediately follow this one]:

by Farrell Till

In the past two issues of TSR, I have discussed various claims of prophecy fulfillment that Bruce Weston expressed concern about in his article "Doubts But Questions about Prophecy" in the January/February issue (pp. 6-7). In one case, he thought it possible that what skeptics consider an example of prophecy failure wasn't necessarily a failure. This was the occasion of an apparent promise that Jesus made that he would come again before "this generation" had passed away. In Matthew 24, the disciples of Jesus asked him to tell them what would be the sign of his coming and of the end of the world (v:3). Over the space of several verses (4-31), Jesus answered their question and told of several "events" that would happen prior to his return and the signs that would accompany his coming, after which he made the statement that Weston inquired about.

Now learn this parable from the fig tree: When its branch has already become tender and puts forth leaves, you know that summer is near. So you also, when you see all these things, know that it is near--at the doors! Assuredly, I say to you, this generation will by no means pass away till all these things take place (vs:32-34, emphasis added).

Weston wanted me to address "the Christian defense that by saying this generation, Jesus was talking about the same generation that sees the fig tree put forth its leaves (and not to the current generation of His time)" [TSR, January/February 1999, p. 6]. Weston then went on to suggest that the fig tree was "symbolic of Israel, which was reborn as a nation in 1948," and so this interpretation would mean that Jesus was saying that he would return before the generation that witnessed the "rebirth" of Israel had passed away and not before the passing away of the generation of his own time.

Ezekiel's Prophecy Against Egypt (4 of 7)

From *The Skeptical Review*, 1999 / May-June. [This is the fourth of seven posts dealing with alleged biblical prophecies. The remaining three will immediately follow this one]:

by Dave Matson

The biblicist reassures us that Ezekiel's prophecy for Egypt (and certain other prophecies of the Bible) will be fulfilled some time in the future. If necessary, a new pharaoh will arise, a new Nebuchadnezzar will come into existence, and the first will be devastated by the second! Is this sound reasoning?

How do we know that such things will happen? Doesn't it all boil down to the presumption that the prophecy in question is true? Or, is it a case of claiming that something might happen just because there is still time on the clock?

In the former case, why does the biblicist even bother with reason? Reasoning is like a long anchor chain. All the links have to be there or else you lose the anchor! If you choose reason, dear Bible-believer, then it's reason all the way. That is the only way that you can collect the benefits of reason. If you are going to simply assume you are right at some difficult point, then do so at the start. Stick your head in the sand, declare all biblical prophecy to be correct, and let that be the end of the matter!

Another Prophecy Failure (3 of 7)

From *The Skeptical Review*, 1999 / March-April. [This is the third of seven posts dealing with alleged biblical prophecies. The remaining four will immediately follow this one]:

by Farrell Till

Any discussion with fundamentalist Christians that questions the divine inspiration of the Bible will almost always elicit a challenge to explain all of the prophecy fulfillments. Bruce Weston's article in the previous issue of TSR (pp. 6-7) shows just how far the wool has been pulled over the eyes of the sheep on this issue. Weston has been able to see various flaws in the claim that the Bible is God's inspired word, but his rejection of this belief is apparently being held back by a concern that prophecy fulfillment just may indicate that there is some truth in the claim. An article on pages 10-11 (this issue) discusses Ezekiel's prophecy against Tyre, which was one of Weston's chief concerns, and shows that only a vivid imagination could see this as an example of exact prophecy fulfillment. In coming issues, we will continue to discuss the other prophecy concerns that Weston listed in his article until it has become clear that apologetic arguments based on remarkable prophecy fulfillments are without merit.

The article in this issue on the Tyre prophecy referred to Ezekiel's promise that Nebuchadnezzar would be "given" Egypt as compensation for his failure to take Tyre as the prophecy had predicted, but when the ensuing prophecy against Egypt is analyzed, it becomes clear that it failed too. In a four-chapter tirade against Egypt, Ezekiel said that Yahweh would give Nebuchadnezzar Egypt as "wages" for the labor he had expended on Tyre in an unsuccessful siege (29:19-20). The devastation of Egypt was to be complete. The land would be an "utter waste and a desolation" from Migdol (in the north) to the border of Ethiopia (in the south). So thorough would the devastation be that "neither foot of man nor foot of beast would pass through it, and it would be uninhabited for 40 years and the Egyptians scattered among the nations (29:9-12). At the end of the 40 years, Yahweh would gather the Egyptians back to their country from where they had been scattered, but Egypt would forever be "the lowliest of kingdoms" (v: 15). It would never "exalt itself above the nations" and would not "rule over the nations anymore" (v:15).