The following article is from *The Skeptical Review*, 1996 January/February:
by Farrell Till
Just a superficial reading of Dr. Ross's article about the
application of probabilities to biblical prophecy fulfillment is
enough to see that it is just another attempt to shore up a
discredited apologetic argument. Biblical inerrantists have
repeatedly tried to prove the divine origin of the Bible through
various prophecy-fulfillment claims, but the truth is that no one
has ever been able to verify a single example of biblical prophecy
fulfillment. I have read many such attempts, and Dr. Ross's effort
differs only in that it is, in my opinion, not nearly as good as
some I have seen.
What is really ludicrous about Dr. Ross's article is his
arbitrary
probability figures. They are reminiscent of the ridiculous
probability arguments that creationists bandy about to "prove"
that life could not have happened without divine creation. Before
anyone can determine the probability of any event, he must know
all of the factors that would be involved in the occurrence of the
event, and this is where the absurdities begin in most creationist
and prophecy-fulfillment probability arguments. No one knows how
many factors would be involved in the formation of life, and
nobody knows how many factors would be involved in the occurrence
of a specific event years in the future. Yet biblicists constantly
yak about how the probability of such-and-such happening would be
one in so many millions or billions or trillions. It's all too
ridiculous to deserve serious comment, but because so many
fundamentalists use such arguments to impress the gullible, we,
unfortunately, have to comment on their "arguments" from time to
time.
In order to prove--and I mean *prove*, not just
surmise--prophecy
fulfillment, one would have to establish four things: (1) the
claimant of a prophecy fulfillment is properly interpreting
whatever text he is basing his claim on, (2) the prophecy was made
*before* and not after the event that allegedly fulfills the
prophecy, (3) the prophecy was made not just *before* an event but
far enough in advance of it to make educated guesswork impossible,
and (4) the event that allegedly fulfilled the prophecy did in
fact happen. When Dr. Ross's claims of prophecy fulfillment are
examined in terms of these four characteristics of valid prophecy,
we will see that none of his alleged prophecy fulfillments can
pass muster.