From *The Skeptical Review*, 1999 / March-April. [This is the second of seven posts dealing with alleged biblical prophecies. The remaining five will immediately follow this one]:
by Farrell Till
I am always happy to be of help to those who have taken their first steps away from Christian fundamentalism but still have lingering doubts about whether they have made the right decision. In Mr. Weston's case, he has raised so many questions that I hardly know where to begin. Since most of his concerns seem related to biblical prophecies, I will focus primarily on this issue, but first I want to assure him that after one has left a religion that he/she was indoctrinated in while growing up, it is perfectly normal to wonder if the right decision was made. I had such doubts myself for a period of time, and others who left religious fundamentalism have told me that they did too. Just the night before I began writing this article, I received a call from someone who had subscribed to The Skeptical Review after deciding to leave a sect that taught demon possession. Former associates in this sect had been bombarding him with warnings that he had put himself in danger of falling prey to demons whom God would allow to possess him as punishment for having lost his faith. The caller had been bothered with "what-if" concerns and wanted to know if I could give him advice on how to deal with them.
Pascal's Wager: The members of this sect, of course, were using a variation of Pascal's wager to try to scare a former member into coming back to the mire that he had pulled himself out of. The term "Pascal's wager" has been applied to an argument that was made by Blaise Pascal, a 17th-century French philosopher and mathematician, who argued that one should "bet" on the existence of God rather than its alternative, because "if you gain, you gain all," but "if you lose, you lose nothing." Arguing from this false dichotomy, Pascal advised that one should "wager, then, without hesitation that He is." Pascal's dichotomy was false, because the conclusion that he reached cannot be justified by dividing the problem into just two divisions, i. e., God exists or God does not exist. While it may be true that God either exists or he does not exist, the problem of "gaining" or "losing" in the sense that Pascal was talking about is far more complex than simply betting that "He is." If one is going to bet that God exists, which religion based on that division of the dichotomy is one going to bet on? Should one bet on Christianity or Islam? Hinduism or Zoroastrianism? If one chooses to bet on Islam but Christianity turns out to be the true religion of the "God-is" division, we all know what Christianity says awaits those who reject the "son of God." In this case, it would not be true that the one who had wagered without hesitation that "He is" had "gain[ed] all." He would have lost everything even though he had bet that "God is."